Are we in a housing bubble in Sonoma County?
Sonoma County’s vibrant housing market became even hotter through the first three months of 2021 as a rush of Bay Area residents continued to flee dense urban areas for the Wine Country, sending the county’s median home price to an all-time high at the end of Q1! Watch the video above for a quick recap on what's happening in our local real estate market. Untethered from the office, many house hunters sought bigger living spaces and a more relaxed lifestyle. North Bay home prices that are viewed as a bargain compared to many other parts of the Bay Area were also a draw. And historic low interest rates spurred homebuyers to take advantage of attractive mortgage terms. The median price for a home in Sonoma County has increased 13% since March 2020, when the lockdown began. Over the first three months of 2021, the median price was $745,000, a 15% bump from the same period in 2020. During first quarter of 2021, 1,049 home sales were finalized, a nearly 30% spike compared to the previous year. These figures represent a remarkable turnaround for a local housing market that basically shut down for a couple of months last spring. *Note: These stats reflect single family homes in Sonoma County and do not include condominiums. Are we in a housing bubble? Today, most home loans are 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with historic low interest rates. Thanks to lending reform, people don't get approved for a loan they can't pay like they did in the 2000s when the market crashed. This means that even though houses are selling for top dollar, the buyers that purchase them can afford it. The amount of cash (often from stock rich tech workers) we have in the market continues to impact multiple offer scenarios—and while we can't predict what will happen in the coming months, all we can say is that this market looks nothing like it did back when the bubble burst in 2008. There is a national shortage of housing stock that is a trailing effect of the great recession. So, we think it's safe to say that we are NOT in a housing bubble. What To Expect As We Look Ahead to Summer 2021...
HOT Sonoma County Housing Market 🔥
Sonoma County’s vibrant housing market turned red-hot through the first three months of 2021 as a rush of Bay Area residents continued to flee dense urban areas for Wine Country during the pandemic, sending the county’s median home price to an all-time high in March. The median price for a home in Sonoma County has increased 13% since March 2020, when the pandemic had begun and started to affect the county housing market. Over the first three months of 2021, the median price was $745,000, a 15% bump from the same period in 2020. In March, 421 area homes were sold, an increase of 39% from the same month last year. During first quarter of 2021, 1,049 home sales were finalized, a nearly 30% spike compared to the previous year. Click here to see the Press Democrat's article on April 14th about the market turning "red-hot": Sonoma County's Hot Market Hits Price Record in March....
Just Listed! Healdsburg Hideaway / $1,350,000
With the Healdsburg Plaza only 2 1/2 blocks away, 114 Fitch Street is an imaginatively re-conceived and polished gem, tucked away on Alley 1. Designer touches and high end finishes inspire. The setting lends the air of calm you seek when you visit (or stay) in Wine Country. Why not uncomplicate your life? Your largest decision – do we dine indoors or out, or in town? Do we entertain by the fireplace in the family room or the outdoor living room and firepit? Architecturally designed and largely rebuilt and expanded in approximately 2014, the home has an open floor plan that seamlessly integrates with the outdoor spaces. An open concept chef's kitchen with stainless appliances and sleek surfaces has ample storage and an island that surveys the living spaces. A primary suite and bath allow you to pamper yourself indoors or in the hot tub outside your window. Intimate and interesting plantings, citrus trees, a retractable awning, well thought out decking and patios expand your living and your life for the best Healdsburg has to offer. Property Website ...
Sonoma County Housing Market Breaks Records in 2020!
After the coronavirus pandemic sent Sonoma County homebuying into a tailspin last spring, the local housing market rebounded to have a banner year, posting a record annual median home price and the most houses and condos sold in seven years! As we embark on a new year (we can’t believe it’s already February), let’s take a look at some of the important real estate highlights from 2020 and what experts are forecasting for the spring season. [caption id="attachment_21108" align="aligncenter" width="408"] *Note: The median price for single family homes in Sonoma County is $700,000, slightly higher than $675,000 mentioned in this report which includes condominiums.[/caption] What This Means For Buyers & Sellers: Low inventory, high buyer demand and increasing home prices have resulted in a seller’s market as we enter 2021. Historic low interest rates are drawing more buyers, especially millennials, into the marketplace. Buyers are flocking to Sonoma County from the Bay Area due to changing household needs and work-from-home flexibility. Despite home prices increasing, Sonoma County is still considered an affordable option compared to the Bay Area with a median single family home price of $700,000 vs $1.06 million. What To Expect As We Look Ahead to Spring 2021...
An Upturn in the Housing Market May Be Reversing – NYTimes.com
But what about Sonoma County and Northern California? If you read this article in the business section of today's New York Times, An Upturn in the Housing Market May Be Reversing - NYTimes.com you'd find very justifiable skepticism about the increase in real estate sales volume nationally that we've experienced this summer and fall. As some friends and I discussed at dinner in Healdsburg Monday night, no one is convinced that the economy is on firmly recovering footing, Wall Street enthusiasm aside. So are we up for a "W" recovery--meaning another downturn in housing prices? From the article, which discussed the latest Case Shiller Housing Index Report: The two housing price reports lag, by a month, the figures on the volume of home resales, which were issued Monday for October. Home resales jumped 10.1 percent to the highest level in two years, better than analysts had expected. Much of the increase was attributed to the $8,000 first-time buyer’s tax credit, which had been set to expire Nov. 30 but has been renewed through spring. Buyers who have already owned a home are now eligible for a $6,500 credit. While brisk sales volume should, in theory, push up prices, Maureen Maitland, the vice president for index services at S.& P., said the oversupply of inventory was acting as a brake. “You can look down the street and have 10 houses to choose from,” she said. About 3.57 million used homes are for sale, a number that has been declining but is still higher than the historic average. It represents seven months of inventory at the current sales rate. Ms. Maitland speculated that the housing market might follow a “W” pattern, as the price lows plumbed last spring are tested again this winter. It's all well and good to look at national statistics, but (and this is a cliche so forgive me)--looking at the national housing market to try to determine what is happening with home values in your neighborhood is like trying to know what the weather will be like by knowing what the average temperature in the US is at any given time. Just look at the paragraph above--7 months available inventory nationwide. In Sonoma County we have less than three months of inventory available county wide, and less than two months at the lower price ranges. Even at the upper price ranges we have about 10 months of inventory...
Shades of a Seller's Market? Or, "How to Buy a Bank-Owned Home" by Kris Berg
Kris Berg of the San Diego Home Blog makes a movie about a seller's market in Bank Owned Real Estate...
"It ain't over till it's over." or what Yogi Berra can teach first time buyers about Real Estate
So if you know me well, you know that I am a die-hard THIRD generation New York Yankees fan. (DISCLAIMER: Despite this fact, I have several clients, good friends and colleagues who are Boston Red Sox fans, but that is another story.)
How does Yogi Berra relate to the current real estate market in Sonoma County, Ca?
Well as current clients of mine will tell you-they thought they’d found a perfect house. We’ll call it “Park Place”. Great commute location, walking distance to shops and restaurants, and best of all a vastly over-sized, 13,000 square foot park-like back yard (complete with its own redwood tree and veggie garden). Unfortunately for them, 18 other buyers also thought it was a great property and the winning offer was not ours, even thought we went well over asking, my clients were extremely qualified first time buyers. In this case it wasn’t enough. But they gave it their best shot at a price that made sense to them and lived with the results.
After a four week break to take care of family obligations, my clients were ready to write an offer on another pretty interesting property. Â Meanwhile, I had told the listing agent for the first property to keep us posted if something happened to the original offer.
Also we kept an eye on things. We don’t want to rely on an overburdened REO listing agent. To make this easy for everyone, I set up a private web site for my clients updated in real time with changes to the MLS (Real Estate Multiple Listings Service). You may not realize it but most public facing websites are not reliably up to date, so a property could be back in escrow and not available again before you know it.
In this client website, we can keep homes in “Newly Matched”, “Saved”, and “Rejected” Tabs. That way we are in sync and can both keep tabs on things so to speak. With my out of town clients, the “Comments” feature helps my get to know their preferences pretty quickly.
Back to the Yogi Berra situation: the same day we were writing on place number 2, I received a phone call from the listing agent on “Park Place” –the house of the 19 offers. Apparently the first buyer could not perform due to problems with their FHA financing.  The 3`cash buyers had gone elsewhere. My clients were selected next by the bank who owned “Park Place” (bank as property owner-is an “REO” for real-estate owned).
Long story short, my clients are now in escrow to purchase “Park Place”. Of course, it ain’t really over till escrow closes. It is always wise for buyers of any property not to fall in love until they are moved in. But this one, given up for good a month ago, looks pretty good now.
So thanks Yogi, for the real estate wisdom.  And I thought you were just a great catcher, hitter and 10 time World Series Champion!
Are you a Property Virgin? $8,000 $Reasons to find why now might be the time to buy your first home
I have got to give credit where credit is due..Krisstina Wise is an Austin real estate broker, head of the Good Life Team. Earlier today she followed me on Twitter. I decided to check out the website of her self-described "hip" Austin real estate brokerage. I found it engaging, well-thought out, informative and professionally done. They use video judiciously and well and have some good tools for buyers and sellers. Their blog had a post on the new federal tax credit for first time home buyers. It wasn't the feds who coined the "Property Virgin", nor did I, so I MUST give credit where credit is due. Thanks to Krisstina and the Good Life team. Here is a bit of their post: No joke. The 8,000 reasons to buy today are quantified in terms of real dollars — $8,000! That’s right. As part of the stimulus package, Uncle Sam is offering “First-Time Homebuyers†(Let’s call you Property Virgins) up to $8,000 in the form of a tax credit for purchasing a home in 2009. If you have been on the fence or if you are considering buying a home in the next year or so – you must learn about the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 – The First-time homebuyer tax credit. This is a special opportunity that enables you, as a Virgin, to be one of the few who can BENEFIT from this crazy economy. What is it? As part of the Stimulus package, a Property Virgin who purchases in 2009 is eligible to receive up to 10% of the cost of the house –up to $8,000– in the form of a tax credit on their tax return (did we just use stimulus and virgin in the same sentence?). A tax credit means that the $8,000 is a dollar for dollar reduction in what you owe in taxes. This means that if you owed $8,000 in income taxes and you received the $8,000 tax credit, you would owe nothing to the IRS. If you are owed a refund of $1,000, after the credit you would receive a refund of $9,000! And no, you don’t have to pay it back if you live in your new home for at least 3 years. Actually both the term property virgin and first time buyer are not really accurate. Eligibility for this tax break really focuses on your...
Sonoma County Real Estate Pending Sales up 96% versus December 2006
There was no seasonal dip in newly opened escrows this December as brave (or desperate) buyers and investors sought a home for their cash, literally. Despite the horrendous news in the financial markets, the rate of sales actually increased and the number of new listings continued to decline over the most recent months. Maybe the 2 point drop in interest rates over the last three months has continued to spur buyer activity, and not just at the low end of the market (under $500K--or really under $350K). I just got my hands on all sorts of juicy data and four major price points so you will hear more from me as I analyze the results. The steadily increasing sales continues a trend lead by low-priced REO properties we first noted in February and March of 2008. Meanwhile, here is the quick overview. (Thanks to my broker, Rick Laws, of Coldwell Banker, who is a data geek. He pulls Sonoma County real estate sales data from the local multiple listings service (BAREIS) via the Brokermetrics service.) Since December 2006: Pending Sales are up 96% Closed Sales up 7% New Listings up 48% Take a look at the trend lines over two years, because that tells a partial story of our market in Sonoma County real estate. More to come. Stay tuned. ...
October Sonoma County Real Estate Sales Snapshot
This week I received this quick sales snapshot from Rick Laws, my broker at Coldwell Banker.  It provides a 13 month overview of Sonoma County residential sales activity at all price ranges and in all locations county wide. Sales activity and area trends vary widely by price and location but this is a quick view based upon MLS data pulled by Brokermetrics. In about a week I will have more detailed information available covering the various price points and separating out condo activity. Sonoma County Real Estate Market Dynamics October 2008                                Oct 07       Oct 08        # Units Change       % Change Under contract      227             604                       377                     166% Sold                      227              488                        261                    115% New listings           530              551                          28                      5% The biggest takeaway here is that this is the first time in over two years that the number of newly opened escrows has exceeded the number of new listings.  Despite everything that happened in the financial markets in October, the number of newly opened escrows was up 166% and hit its highest point year over year. In addition, the number of closed escrows reached a new high for the year. We all know that not every opened escrow will close-but the number of newly ratified sales continues its upward trend, and bucks the national trend. The tail wagging the dog in this market continues to be the REO (bank-owned) home at the low end with an increasingly high volume of sales under $500,000 for both single family homes and condos. Sales through October seem to be driven (this is anecdotal) equally by first time buyers or owner occupants and real estate investors....