2008 Sonoma County Real Estate: Three Quick Sales Trends
These three graphs tell the quick story of pricing, supply and demand trends for housing in Sonoma County from December 2007 through 2008. But the real story for your home depends on the price range for your house and the part of the county in which you live, or seek to live. You cannot automatically say that every home in the country dropped 30%. The price dropped most steeply in those communities with high rates of distressed housing: West Santa Rosa, East Petaluma, Windsor and Rohnert Park/Cotati. But, on average, and in summary: The median price dropped 30% year over year. The number of newly ratified sales contracts grew steadily all year and lead to a 184% increase year over year. Months supply of inventory dropped dramatically (73%) and steadily all year, exceeding the drop in prices. From a very strong buyers market in December '07, with over 14 months supply of homes at last December's sales rate, this December saw only 3.7 months supply. Six months is considered a balanced market. Anything under is a seller's market--in this case the banks who own nearly half the properties sold. ...
November 2008 Sonoma County Real Estate Sales still cooking
Given the short month, the holiday season and oh yes, the economic meltdown in the news, real estate sales are holding steady as viewed at the end of November, 2008 in Sonoma County California. I will have more detailed information by price points later in the month but here is a quick tidbit of post-Thanksgiving real estate stats. The number of units sold will increase with the final report since there is a several day lag on sales closed at the end of each month while the reporting catches up. This information is provided by Rick Laws, my broker at Coldwell Banker Santa Rosa, and is based upon sales reported via the MLS here by Brokermetrics.                                     Nov 07        Nov 08         #Units Change         Percent Change Under Contract         206              455                  249                     120.9 % Sold                               242             320                  78                        32.2 % New Listings                474              370                -104                    -21.9 % First thing that jumps out is that there were 120.9 % MORE brave souls who wrote offers on properties in this wild short month of November versus last year at this time. The number of closed sales is up at least 32 % year to year as well.  The number of new listings has declined nearly 22 % versus last November, as many people hunker down. This makes for some interesting trend lines year over year, as well as expected seasonal declines in units sold as we head into the winter months.  Anecdotally, the buyers are split about evenly between investors and first-time home buyers. Units sold are dominated by the low-end of our market, under $400,000. Since the one point drop in mortgage rates just before Thanksgiving really was not much of a factor in November's sales, it will be interesting to see how that boosts (or not) our real estate sales for Sonoma County in December.  Stay tuned....
Months Supply of Sonoma County Entry Level Real Estate Declines Sharply
One of the most interesting measures of the tension between buyers and sellers in a real estate market is the "Months Supply of Inventory" figure. What this number tells us is the number of months it would take to sell the existing number of homes for sale at the present rate of closed sales. Buyers Market or Sellers Market? Generally six months of inventory is considered to be a market balanced between buyers and sellers. Anything less, and sellers are advantaged in negotiations. Anything more, and the trend favors buyers. Two years ago in Sonoma county, there were 6.2 months of entry level inventory for sale. When the first wave of foreclosed properties began hitting our market in force in 2007, the inventory piled up to a high point that so few properties were selling, as many more were coming on the market. Consequently, MSI (Months Supply of Inventory) ballooned to a 14.8 months supply, a strongly favored buyers market. Early in 2008, banks began slashing prices and buyers have been increasingly active ever since. (See my posts under market updates beginning in March to track this trend.) The lower priced properties, driven by foreclosures, have steadily been absorbed by first time buyers and investors. They have been gobbling up REO's so quickly that now there are only 2.7 months of inventory available at the current rate of new listings and sales, a strongly favored sellers market. If you are a buyer interested in purchasing an REO home, it is important for buyers to be prepared for the market realities especially for the most solid homes in the best locations. 1. You must have a STRONG pre-approval. In many cases first time buyers will be competing with all cash investors for the same properties. 2. You may need to make multiple offers on a stream of properties before you land the right one. 3. It ALL DEPENDS. Make sure you have a committed working relationship with a realtor who is knowledgeable about the changing market, and who knows how to present and negotiate your offer(s) in the best light. Just as sellers have learned (in some cases!) to be realistic, it is important for buyers to do the same. Happy hunting! ...
Sonoma County Market Dynamics for May 2008: Demand up, Supply of New listings down 14%
Ok so I admit that there is more to being successful in buying and selling real estate (as a realtor or an actual buyer or seller) than knowing market statistics. But the dynamics of this real estate market are changing so rapidly, and the various locations and price points add multiple additional layers of complexity, so that it bears spending some time looking at the numbers. Most of us also like to see if the trends on aggregate bear out our senses as we live and breathe in this market every day. So any of my clients or friends who ask me "How's the market?" knows that I can wax poetic on the subject. Tongue slightly in cheek. ;) Anyway, my broker Rick Laws, just released May's sales statistic for Sonoma County to us this morning and the sales up-tick we noted previously appears to be continuing or even accelerating. Add that to the big news that the number of new listings is actually down 14%. This is for all residential sales in Sonoma County at all price points. I have asked Rick for some additional breakdowns. This is a rough pass of the data because as Rick says, some of the sales reporting for last month can be a little late and dribble in over the first 10 days of the month, which is when he normally compiles the stats that you see in the Press Democrat. Closed sales are up slightly over last year at this time. But even more interestingly, newly opened escrows (sales under contract but due to close in 1 to 2 months) are up 68 percent this year over last. Even if some fall out of escrow, that is a significant boost to a trend we first noted here in early March. Even more interestingly, new listings are down 14% over last year. So where do you think the market is heading? Please click on the image above for a larger view. ...
Entry Level Sonoma County Real Estate Market Hopping!
Please click on the image above to see one that is actually readable! The trend we first noted in February is continuing in Sonoma County Real Estate Sales, led by our entry level market of homes under $500,000. Not only is the number of new CLOSED sales up to the highest point in over two years, the number of newly opened escrows (UNDER CONTRACT above) is increasing even more rapidly, on pace to close next month. Many of these homes are bank-owned (REO's) or short sales and the buyers consist of investors and first time buyers or folks who are down-sizing. The number of newly opened escrows in this category is up 274% over last year at this time. While buyers think they can offer considerably lower than asking, that is not necessarily true. I just opened escrow for a client in this price range and we were able to get a great property that had been on the market for some time (not a foreclosure) and ridden the price trend down. The perils of overpricing in this case benefited my buyer who is in contract to purchase this home for 33% less than the original asking price, and 15% under the most recent price. But the REO's are now priced to sell for the most part and attracting multiple offers. One of the best deals I saw in Montgomery Village last week at under $320,000 had four offers within a few days of coming on the market and still the bank had not selected which cherry offer to pick. But even if this property sells for slightly over asking, it is a great solid home (in need of much TLC) on a prime street and lot with surrounding homes that will love to see this one fixed up! Perhaps the big thud we heard in Sonoma County last winter was the sound of the market hitting bottom. We shall see. More stats and opinions to come on other segments of the Sonoma County Real Estate market this week....