Only 2.2 Months Supply of Housing Inventory, Really?
Sonoma County housing inventory for sale is very low--but just how much can you read into it?...
Only half the Sonoma County homes for sale this year compared to last
Month's Supply of Inventory (MSI) is down sharply from last year. Sales of existing single family homes fell slightly last quarter as first time buyers and investors busily snatched up entry level homes price under $350,000. At the present moment, November 2, 2009, there are only 1190 homes for sale Unit sales are down also, from priced under $500,000 county wide, versus 2,458 at the end of October 2008, meaning there are only 2.8 months of inventory supply if sales continue at their current rate. Anything under a five to seven months supply is considered to be a sellers market. Inventory is in very short supply and sales seem to be increasing even moving up to the higher price points. Please call or email me if you would like to sell your home. If you have been hesitating to sell your home because of the market, conditions may be more favorable than you think. ...
All the Real Estate Market Stats you Can Eat
Some new web tools enable me to provide up to the minute sales trends for real estate in Sonoma County in a more thorough and clear fashion, for those who are interested in such things. The data is based upon actual sales information reported by the BAREIS (Bay Area Real Estate Information Services) MLS, or multiple listing service....
Sonoma County Real Estate Sales Update
Year over year the median Sonoma County home price dropped 5% to $359,000. However, the apparent bottom for this market (whether a V, U or W is yet to be determined) was in February when the median price was #315,000. Some of my smart buyer clients (you know who you are) are happily ensconced in homes they bought in January and February, sensing the (a?) bottom had arrived....
Sonoma County Real Estate Market Half-Time Report
The long days and sunny weather have taken me away from my computer--sorry it has been so long since my last post. I have a new iPhone (fun and without a doubt best new productivity tool in a long time--probably since my first Palm Pilot in 1996). I am available by phone or email or Twitter, Facebook, etc. if you have an immediate question, please feel free to contact me. And thanks to those of you who already have! We are in the thick of a hot summer market here in Sonoma County. Buyers have been coming back into our market in increasing numbers since late last year. Now, nearly every property sold under $400,000 has multiple offers. First time buyers or conventional buyers with ten or twenty percent down should expect to have to write offers on multiple properties before they get "the one". There is only 2-4 months supply of inventory available at the current rate of sales (at price points under a million dollars). What about the new wave of "shadow" inventory of foreclosure properties being held back from the market by the bank? At this point, it would appear that the market of existing buyers (both first time buyers and investors) will absorb it fairly readily....
Where the action is in Sonoma County Real Estate
Brokermetrics, a real estate data analysis service provided by Terradatum, is currently beta-testing a new tool for analyzing real estate sales trends by price range. This is really welcome as far as I am concerned because our market is so hot at the low end (under $400,000) and so slow at higher price points that it is really difficult to make sense of market stats country wide for all price ranges. It takes a lot of slicing and dicing to confirm what most of us already know, that mid and upper price range properties are moving much more slowly than entry level homes being snatched up by first time buyers and investors. So here is a look at the new Brokermetrics graph. I know you really need your microscope to read these images, so don't forget to click on them so you can go to a larger version than fits in my middle column here. ...
Median Home Price Rises in Sonoma County
A few days ago I wrote in a post: The sheer activity level, the vast number of first time buyers and investor clients looking for rental property, and the declining number of new listings have all been detailed here over the previous months. In December, new sales exceeded new listings for the first time in many months, and, beginning in February it seems to us that the bottom was reached and had passed some entry level buyers by. A few minutes ago I received the following snapshot of the Sonoma County Real Estate Market closed sales figures from March 2008 through March 2009, thanks to my broker, Rick Laws of Coldwell Banker, who compiles our market statistics and shares them generously, with not only me and my colleagues, but the Press Democrat newspaper. Obviously one of the take aways from this graph, year over year, is the 27% drop in median price for the county. But the median price rose from its low in February about $10,000 with a high rate of closed sales and a good statistical base. Prices on the low end seem to have stabilized and maybe bounced upwards a few percent. This is as welcome as the signs of spring!...
Have we hit bottom in the Sonoma County real estate market cycle?
Actually the only way you know is when it has passed by. A few weeks ago an agent friend and I were visiting as I fed the horses one early spring evening. She was telling me of the difficulties she was having successfully securing a home for first time buyers. This a great agent with many years of experience who was working with entry level low income buyers in Sonoma County. They were looking for a home priced under $200,000 in the Santa Rosa city limits. They were pre-approved for FHA financing with the reputable lender who had referred them to my client. They are eligible for a $10,000 down payment assistance from the city of Santa Rosa which will subsidize their down payment. Their income and credit qualified them for an FHA (Federal Housing Administration) loan. Although they qualify for the federal government first time buyer $8,000 tax credit, that cash won't reach their pockets until after the sale has closed. This couple was competing in many multiple offer situations with all cash investor buyers or other first time buyers such as themselves. Many properties in their price range were in such poor condition that they would not meet the strict FHA property condition guidelines, and the repairs needed would have put them beyond the couple's limited budget. I don't know how many offers they wrote but they were not having luck. As my friend detailed the many days and hours she spent with this couple, she said it was seeming increasingly unlikely that they would make it into the market. I paused as I asked her, "Do you think we have hit the bottom here in Sonoma County?". She said yes--good properties are selling extremely fast and sometimes at over asking price. I had to agree. What had seemed a consistently active but still laid back market this winter was falling into high gear as the days got longer. As some of my buyer clients and I surmised in January and February, we felt that things would be much more competitive as spring arrived, and that seems to be true. In fact, the southern part of Sonoma County, in Petaluma was already scorching hot at Christmas and New Year's time. And that same scorch-ability (sp?) seemed to be tracking north along the 101 corridor. The...
Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up To Me
The title of my last blog post was so upbeat I was a tad embarrassed on reflection. Was I just drinking the real estate Koolaid?  If you read the body of the post last week, you'd realize that my comments were a little more nuanced, but there was good reason for my optimism. I was in the midst of a multiple offer competition on a property in Healdsburg (my buyers are now in escrow and very happy), there were many properties going into escrow in the last couple of weeks in Sonoma County, and not just in the bottom end of the REO pool. Some really special country properties in Sebastopol and Graton that interested a number of my clients sold within a week of coming on the market before people could even get up here from out of town to see them. Open houses were packed all over the county. My transaction coordinator, Alise Posman, had 10 newly opened escrow files on her desk Monday morning and she is only one of several TC's at our office. It seems that there is a lot of pent up demand, and people with cash are deciding to invest in real estate here rather than stuff it under a mattress. Some are buying rentals, some are buying homes for the first time. Some are buying weekend homes, or rentals that will eventually become their wine country retirement homes. Some are searching for horse properties and there are some great deals at a variety of price points. That said, I felt a little sheepish about the headline, given the brutal reality of current conditions in our country. The old title of Richard Farina's 1966 book came to mind: "Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up To Me". I guess we are taking these signs of life as encouragement where we can this spring. No one has any illusions that happy days are here again but there are little glimmers of hope, kind of like the first bulbs coming up in the spring. It will be interesting to see how this year unfolds. But don't believe if you are a buyer that you will be without competition for the best properties, well-priced and in good condition this spring. If you are a seller take heed, and do what it takes to be perceived as a deal right out of the chute. You might be pleasantly surprised....
Sonoma County Real Estate Market sizzling hot up to $1 Million
But not over a million. That part of our market is very slow. But signs are very encouraging for a more balanced market in 2009 at all price points under a million. The experience of most Sonoma County realtors I know is that buyers are out if force for January, following a very busy holiday season. The big difference is that we are finally seeing sales movement at prices between $400,000 and $1 million, as buyers in those price ranges seem to be stepping off the fence. Both single family homes and condos are selling at a rapid clip. More details to come but here is a quick snapshot for single family dwellings in all price ranges through January 30, 2009. ...