Market updates

Santa Rosa Home Sales Update: Only 1.3 Months Supply of Inventory Available, Down 60 Percent!

[caption id="attachment_1701" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Real Estate is Coming up Roses in Santa Rosa"][/caption]Santa Rosa is the big kahuna town in Sonoma County, so it's market stats for real estate will be a bit more true and resemble more of Sonoma County as a whole. Again, no surprise in the story here. Declining inventory. Two years ago, inventory was already low, but real estate sales were concentrated under $300,000 or so. Now the market is finally more active at all price points. In April 2010 there were only 3.2 months supply of inventory. Anything between four to six months is considered "balanced" between buyers and sellers. Fast forward to April 2012 and MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY is only 1.3, down a whopping SIXTY (60) PERCENT! I think if we only looked at homes priced under $500,000 we would find that there are only TWO WEEKS of inventory available, similar to some hot markets in the immediate Bay Area. Something's gotta give. Can you say "price increases"? haSanta Rosa Home Sales Report...

Healdsburg Homes and Ranches Market Update

[caption id="attachment_1693" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Pointing the way in a Westside Road garden in Healdsburg"][/caption]Healdsburg is one of the most desirable communities in Sonoma County and is fast becoming a desination for travellers and homebuyers from all over the globe. Much of Healdsburg's charm stems from the fact that it is a small town. Small town sales volume does not lend itself to great real estate stats since the sample size is so small. That is why I mostly look at sales and real estate market stats county wide. Nevertheless, once in a while we look at individual communities. By looking back at charts over a two year period you can see the seasonality of the numbers and get a little more of a feel for the market. Beware though. Healdsburg has seen some of the highest sales prices in the county (in the many millions) and also has some more typical lower entry level prices around $300,000. If you throw in a property that sells for many many millions of dollars one month in to the mix with only a few other homes and you will see wild fluctuations in median and average prices. That doesn't mean the price of your Healdsburg home has gone up fifty percent in a month as the slide on median sold prices indicates! Probably the most telling slide is the one that shows supply and demand. Inventory of homes for sale is down 34% over the last two years, and the number of sold properties is up 24%. Increasing demand, declining supply. Same story you see throughout Sonoma County. Healdsburg for its size has a higher percentage of expensive homes and ranches, and has had fewer distressed sales. Healdsburg Home Sales Report ...

A look at Sebastopol Area Home Sales April 2010 through April 2012

[caption id="attachment_1684" align="alignleft" width="300" caption="Apple orchards give way to vineyard views in this typical Sebastopol country side scene off Burnside Road"][/caption]. Here is a look back at residential real estate sales in the Sebastopol area of Sonoma County, including Graton and Occidental, from April 2010 through April 2012. The reason I usually post county wide numbers is that it is easier to discern pricing and other trends on a month to month basis with the numbers for the county as a whole. You might be interested in just your town, so from time to time I will pull just the numbers for a specific locale, in this case the greater Sebastopol area. Though a small sample size makes it difficult to spot month to month trends, in general inventory is declining and sales activity rising, resulting in only 2.4 months supply of homes for sale in Sebastopol. Two years ago there were 4.6 months supply of inventory. Sales activity is strong but declined slightly (by one house--see what I mean?) in April 2012 compared to April 2010. Take a look through the reports and let me know if you have any questions! By the way, I archive these reports at a document sharing site called Scribd Sebastopol Home Sales Report...

What Holiday Break? January 2012 Sonoma County Real Estate Market Off to a Fast Start

Here I sit on New Year's eve weekend--in the sunshine out by the pool writing some blog posts for the new year. What was going to be a sleepy quiet week between Christmas and New Year's has been anything but! I have written two offers this week and have two new listings coming on the market in the next couple of weeks. Am also getting good activity on some other listings! What gives? Normally this is a pretty quiet time of year in the real estate market but activity has barely taken a breath for the holidays! I am not complaining, not by any means. I think it is a good sign that the market is so active. Other agents I know are very busy, home inspectors are booked solid and there is a decided hint of optimism in the air. Now I realize that there are lots of challenges and difficulties in our economy and the real estate world. About 30% of homeowners owe more than their homes are worth. We are not heading in to a dramatic turnaround anytime soon. By the same token though buyers don't seem to be waiting on the sidelines and sellers with equity also have decided to get back on the playing field. With interest rates ridiculously low, this bodes for a busy January. Welcome to 2012! We will be back this week with a more detailed look at the market for real estate in Sonoma County. Until then, Happy New Year!...

First Quarter Reflections: 2011 Off to a Fast Start but Challenges Remain

Since the first Monday morning after New Year's Day, the Sonoma County real estate market has been incredibly active with some of the highest rates of pending sales in the last several years. Most realtors I know have been very encouraged by all the activity, particularly after activity in late 2010 ground to a near halt for most agents. But many challenges and obstacles remain, and MANY opportunities exist in this market as well. We will continue to delve into these in more detail over the coming months but for now, here are some of the high points. The median sales price in the county has declined over the last several months. What this generally means is not necessarily that values of individual properties have declined so much, although I think there has been some softening. What it means is that the action this last winter was in the low end of the market--that is homes under $350,000. Our market is currently dominated by first time buyers, investors and, to a lesser degree, second-home/retirement buyers. First time buyers are often FHA buyers with as little as 3.5% down. FHA allows these buyers to receive down payment assistance--either gifts from family members or government-sponsored down payment assistance programs such as CHAFA. (News Flash: CHAFA in California is currently on hold due to a funding shortfall.) Real Estate Investors are out in force both in Sonoma County and nationwide. Bargain-basement pricing, interest rates in the fives and a strong rental market are attracting investors in record numbers. Previously high prices kept investors out of our markets for years. Many investors are buying homes to hold and rent. With 25% down, you can buy a rental and pay interest in the low 5's. Homes that cost $200,000 to $300,000 can cash flow today. Someday we will have appreciation again and you can add that to the tax benefits and cash flow of the current rental market. (Talk to your tax advisor about how a rental property can benefit you, and talk to me if you would like me to run some numbers for you.) Other investors are buying to renovate and flip. I have seem some great flip jobs and some bad ones, but for the most part I think these investors are doing a service in renovating some of the really troubled real estate inventory...

25% Home Sales Drop in Sonoma County this October

A winter chill seemed to come early to Sonoma County's real estate market. Sales were at their lowest level for October since 2007. Sales also dropped from September of 2010, which makes me wonder if the news of robo-signing of foreclosure documents just put a huge wet blanket on already skittish buyers. Inventory was up only slightly, and newly pending sales maintained a very good pace, belying the drop in closed sales. It is possible that all the concern about the possible risk of buying foreclosed properties put a damper on sales. In that case short sales might be marginally more attractive to buyers.  (Editor's Comment: it is hard to make a short sale (they are anything but short) attractive to a potential buyer, but if it is the only game in town then I guess they look better, more about that in another post.) The median home price dropped about 9% to $342,500. It has been bouncing around in the mid-$300,000 range for over a year. I have been tracking home sales on this blog since mid-2007. This is the first big (non seasonal) drop in sales volume since late 2008. One month does not a trend make however.  It will be interesting to see if is a temporary reaction to the headlines, or represents a more sustained trend. What does this mean for you if you are a Buyer? If your income situation is stable (a big if for a lot of people), then this winter could present an excellent buying opportunity. Rates have dropped even since the summer to a decades low. Bottom line if you are a buyer now and the numbers work for you, this may be a great chance to buy with less competition at very low cost. If you are a Seller? Without a doubt the drop in sales has got to give you pause if you are a seller. However, to whatever degree there is uncertainty about foreclosure inventory, your "normal" home is going to look a lot more attractive, but not if you overprice it. I can think of any number of "normal" homes that are not priced in line with the competition and are just sitting, getting stale. If you are considering selling within the next two to three years, then you will want to be aggressive and pro-active about how you approach your sale,...

Sonoma County homes sales drop 21 percent in July – Pending Sales Up to Two Year High

This week, the Press Democrat newspaper confirmed the analysis of Sonoma County home sales reported here a couple of weeks ago, proof yet again that a local blogger can more nimbly provide the latest hard core real estate data. My reports are based upon the exact same data the Press Democrat is getting. ;) The headline featured July's drop in CLOSED home sales. If you read through the article, however, you will also learn that pending sales (newly ratified purchase contracts) are up to a two year high in July, indicating that sales activity is still strong, and has rebounded after the expiration of the $8,000 Federal Homebuyer's Tax Credit April 30, 2010. While not all the pending sales will come to a succesful conclusion, it is still a good leading indicator of market activity. Just a reminder that if you are looking for the latest Sonoma County home sales data, you can sign up for an email subscription to my blog, or check here the first week of every month to see the latest real estate sales trends analyzed here. For an archive of previous months' data, check out my Scribd Account. If you are wondering, Scribd is an online repository for sharing of documents with social media components. It is to documents what Flickr is to photos. ...

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